Before the polls close, Mr Varoufakis said a deal can come within 24 hours. How can he be so certain?
Does it have something to do with capital controls?
Because if there is a YES vote, the capital controls can be removed, as the future of Greece in the Eurozone will be assured.
If there is a NO vote, then he can say tonight “We will remove capital controls on Tuesday, but we will also consider whether Greece is not better off with its own currency.” That will of course lead to a bank run on Tuesday, as people will then try to remove their last remaining funds As people can transfer their own money anywhere in the Eurozone, people will try to do that.
But genuine importers will also want to pay their suppliers abroad. The ECB would be forced to stop all payments, if it was to stop a rush of money outside the EU. Otherwise it will have to increase ELA, which it was reluctant to do.
So, to avoid the bank run on Tuesday, the Troika, of which the ECB is a part should settle and come to an agreement, otherwise it will have to illegally stop payments from Greek bank accounts going abroad, and therefore crash the Euro, not just for Greece, but the whole of the Eurozone.
That is my guess, anyway. Now its 5 o’clock and let us see who has won.